It was the 6th of October 2020. The trade ministers of 4 growing economies US, Japan, India, and Australia met in Tokyo. The agenda was to establish a strategic collision in order to stop the growing Chinese influence on international trade.
Will they be able to do it?
The common conception is that this collision of four countries will provide benefits to each other in trade, health, and security.
The agenda of the Tokyo meeting
This is the second meeting of the Quad countries. The first meeting was done in New York last year. It was September and the covid-19 was not seared on a larger scale at that time. Lots of things have been changed after the covid-19.
Naturally, these four countries will discuss the world after the covid-19. Indian prime minister Narendra Modi said in his address to the world in the united nation. After covid-19 we will see a different world and nobody can deny the role of India in this. But will India be so resourceful to play an important role especially when it is in conflict with China?
Definitely, India will try to use this forum in order to reduce the influence of China in this indo-pacific territory.
An important part of the agenda of this is the Tokyo meeting is to formulate the strategy so that the basic infrastructure of health and security can be improved in the Indo Pacific region.
This meeting is very important. The importance of this can be understood by witnessing this fact. In that particular time, the American foreign minister has scheduled visits to other countries too. In the meanwhile, President trump suffered from covid. The American foreign minister has postponed all other foreign tours. But he attended this one.
The economic condition of the member countries
As far as the economic condition of the member countries is concerned, America is the strongest among all. Japan is the third largest nation in the world while India is the fifth largest nation in the world. You cannot deny the importance of Australia when it comes to progressive economies.
Supply Chain improvement
No doubt that this block is powerful in terms of economics. In September an official meeting was arranged between these four countries. That was a virtual meeting in which the member countries decided to improve the supply relationship between them. This is really the same initiative that was taken by China with the name of the Belt and Road initiative.
The interesting question here is will these countries be able to resist China. China has already invested in 70 countries for this project. 7 years have passed since China started this project in 2013. China has literally invested billions of dollars in this project.
The consensus is the resistance to China
Japan, India, the US, and Australia have a long history of relationships. But what is the difference this time? The increased influence of China on the world economy and the wish to resist it as much as possible brought them near. These four countries together will try to reduce the influence of China.
On the other hand, China is fully aware of this. The vice foreign minister of China last month gave a statement that China thinks of this alliance as the first line against China. This is somehow a mini NATO against China.
China thinks that this group has the potential to develop and the coordination against China in the future can be the biggest set to Chinese investment and interest.
Some Chinese experts stated that actually none of these four countries can afford to oppose China. In fact, they are trying to hide their incompetence to handle the threat of covid-19.
Is it really possible to oppose China?
For the interest of readers, we have figured out some interesting facts. These interesting facts will give you a clear picture of if it is possible for this country to actually oppose China.
Can India oppose China?
Truly speaking India does not have the potential to oppose China. Otherwise, the economy of India will collapse. The fact is that China was the biggest Indian trade partner for 5 years. It was the year 2013 and this trend continues till the year 2017.
Even today China is the second biggest trade partner of India. Honestly, apparently, it is not possible for India to oppose China.
Can Australia oppose China?
The Australian economy is dependent on China. Australia exports 48.8 percent of total foreign trade to China. Can Australia bear this much deficiency? The answer is no. This is something which is not possible for any country to lose half of its exports daily. Again honesty with these circumstances so far for Australia it is not possible to oppose China.
Can Japan oppose China?
Japan is in a relatively strong position than all other members of this group. Although the third largest economy of the world. It only relies on 20% in China. This reliance is also mutual.
In 2019 the total trade that happened between China and Japan was 317 billion dollars. All do that this is a very big amount but the trade happened both ways. Japan is in a relatively stronger position to oppose China.
Can the US oppose China?
China is the biggest threat to the supremacy of the United States of America. But the question is can the United States of America take the risk to lose its state partner. In the first seven months of 2020, the total trade volume between America and China is 290 billion dollars.
Simply this is not easy for the US to lose its major trade partner.
From the above facts, it is clear now that it is really difficult for these four countries to oppose China. This is not a matter of days; it took 2 years and two words to get it out of the influence of China.
The current strategies to stop China
These four countries are trying hard individually to reduce the impact of China on the world.
The efforts of India
- India has banned many Chinese apps
- The Indian prime minister Narendra Modi has announced the policy of self reliance to reduce the Chinese import.
Despite all these efforts made by India, the Chinese exports to India have shown any sign of decline.
The effects of the United States of America
- The United States of America has increased the tariff against Chinese companies.
- It was started in 2018 and this policy is still in progress
- The United States action against the well known Chinese company Huawei was part of this
Despite all these efforts, the United state is not successful in his efforts. In the recent year of 2020 still, the Chinese company has managed to sell goods worth 220 billion to the United States of America. While the American companies only managed to sell the goods of 60 billion to the Chinese companies. so there is a major trade deficit for the United States of America even in the current year.
Mutual differences among the collision countries
In addition to these difficulties, there are some differences between the collision countries. These differences may hinder the collective move from the collision countries.
This may be funny for you to know that although China and India are strong and nice, they have differences too. These differences are funny issues.
Japan wants to export chicken to India. India is a great poultry market. This is due to the high number of population in India. The problem is that the Japanese only want to export chicken legs.
Naturally, at this point, a question can pop up in the mind of the readers of what they will do with the other parts of the chicken.
The answer is really very simple and the answer is that they eat it. Yes, the Japanese love to eat the chicken chest. But they do not want to eat the chicken thighs. This is a reason that Japan has chicken thighs in excess quantity. They want these chicken thighs to be exported to India.
India is very reluctant to accept this offer. They think that this would destroy their poultry industry. Although this is a very minor conflict. But this shows that the conflict actually exists between these four countries. This is really very difficult to take a school active move against China.
Many economies of the world are afraid of increasing Chinese influence. These countries want it to be restricted. For this, they are doing a continuous effort. Some efforts are partially successful.
The other thing is that China is in a very good position to respond to these efforts. This makes things difficult for the collisions made against China.
The time will reveal the efforts and success of these collision partners to reduce the effect of China on international trade.